The 2024 election cycle is likely to be the most chaotic election cycle that we have ever seen.
So will this create an opportunity for a new third party to try to pull off a historic upset?
Unless something really dramatic happens, Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee and Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee in 2024. But I don’t think that they will be the only two choices.
There are rumors that one or two prominent third party candidates could soon enter the race, and it appears that large numbers of Americans may be willing to embrace such a candidate. In fact, a Gallup survey that was just released discovered that a whopping 63 percent of U.S. adults believe that “a third major party is needed”…
Sixty-three percent of U.S. adults currently agree with the statement that the Republican and Democratic parties do “such a poor job” of representing the American people that “a third major party is needed.” This represents a seven-percentage-point increase from a year ago and is the highest since Gallup first asked the question in 2003.
This certainly does not mean that 63 percent of U.S. adults would actually vote for a third party candidate.
But what this does mean is that conditions have never been more favorable for such a candidate to emerge.
If you go back 20 years ago, only 40 percent of U.S. adults felt that a third party was needed…
In 2003, a record-low 40% called for a third party when 56% thought the parties were doing “an adequate job of representing the American people.”
Times have clearly changed.
And it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that independents are more interested in a “third major party” than anyone else…
Typically, political independents are most likely to favor a third party, and that is the case this year, with 75% expressing this view. No less than 70% of independents have said a third U.S. party is needed since 2013.
But who could run as a third party candidate and actually win?
In recent days, there have been rumors that RFK Jr. is considering launching an independent bid as a third party candidate.
And if he did go that direction, polls show that he would have quite a bit of support…
An American Values Poll conducted Zogby Strategies of likely general election voters shows that in a three-way race between Kennedy, Trump, and Biden, RFK Jr. enters the contest at 19% with Biden and Trump at 38% each. Kennedy would be the highest-polling independent or 3rd party candidate to enter a presidential election in the modern era, starting off where Ross Perot finished—after spending an enormous amount of money.
“If this Poll shows anything,” said Tony Lyons, Co-Chairman of American Values 2024, “it’s that Kennedy can win as an independent candidate in 2024.”
In a three-way race, RFK Jr. would probably take more votes away from Trump than he would from Biden.
There are also rumors that No Labels is preparing to “mount a third party bid for the White House”…
Political organization No Labels, which has been pushing for a bipartisan ticket to mount a third party bid for the White House, is urging state Democratic Party officials not to interfere with its efforts after President Biden said its leaders had a “democratic right” to do what they’re doing.
Following Biden’s remarks, former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (I), former Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon (D) and former head of the NAACP Benjamin Chavis Jr. called for the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to end what they characterized as an “anti-democracy” campaign against the group.
I think that No Labels does intend to make such a move, and it is likely that Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia will be their candidate.
If that is the case, Manchin would definitely take more votes away from Biden than he would from Trump.
We shall see what happens.
In my opinion, I think that this will be the first election cycle in ages when there is at least one viable third party alternative.
And that will almost certainly greatly impact the outcome of the election.
Of course we don’t have to wait until next year for high stakes political drama.
Kevin McCarthy just lost his spot as Speaker of the House in a stunning turn of events, and some Republicans are suggesting that Donald Trump should replace him.
When asked about this, Trump didn’t completely dismiss the idea…
“Lot of people have been calling me about speaker, all I can say is we’ll do whatever is best for the country and for the Republican Party,” Trump said Wednesday while at a Manhattan courthouse for the third day of his civil fraud trial. Trump, his adult sons and his businesses are being sued for up to $250 million in penalties stemming from what New York authorities describe as persistent business fraud.
Despite the trial, Trump took a minute to answer reporters’ questions about the possibility of a speakership bid.
“My focus is totally on [the presidency]. If I can help them during the process, I’ll do it. But we have some great people in the Republican Party that could do a great job as speaker,” Trump said.
But it is not likely to happen.
Instead, either Steve Scalise or Jim Jordan will almost certainly get the job.
For the moment, Patrick McHenry temporarily has the gavel, and one of his first acts was to order Nancy Pelosi “to vacate her Capitol hideaway office”…
Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) ordered Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to vacate her Capitol hideaway office so he could take it over, just hours after becoming acting Speaker, Pelosi’s office said Tuesday.
McHenry became acting Speaker after Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was ousted from the role Tuesday, the first time a Speaker has been voted out of the job.
McHenry’s office requested that Pelosi vacate her Capitol hideaway office by Wednesday because it was being reallocated “for speaker office use,” the message, first reported by Politico, reads. A small number of senior representatives have “hideaway offices” inside the Capitol Building.
Needless to say, Nancy Pelosi did not like this at all.
I expect animosity between the two major parties to continue to rise throughout the next year.
And adding a prominent third party candidate or two to the mix will certainly make things more interesting.
Our nation is more divided today than ever before, and the coming election will only deepen those divisions.
If you are concerned about where all of this is ultimately heading, you are definitely not alone.
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