What’s taking place is Donald Tusk’s systematic subordination of Poland to German hegemony as a quid pro quo for its support of his return to power.
Polish conservative-nationalist opposition leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s prior assessment of returning Prime Minister Donald Tusk being a German agent continues to be extended credence as the latter’s government makes move after move in support of this thesis. Last month, it shied away from pressing for its predecessor’s $1.3 trillion World War II reparations demand in favor of “creative compensation”, which returning Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski later said could simply be a “dialogue center” instead.
Around the same time, Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz signed a deal in Brussels for partially implementing the “military Schengen” proposal from last November with Germany and the Netherlands. This agreement will enable the free transit of German troop and equipment to and from Poland en route to Berlin’s new tank base in Lithuania, which is the first time since World War II that it’ll have such military rights and is thus understandably opposed by patriotic Poles.
These moves respectively represented Poland’s political and military subordination to Germany, which is now being complemented by an economic component after Tusk’s government – that some describe as a regime due to its totalitarian crackdown on the opposition – decided to reconsider a megaproject. The Central Communication Part, known by its Polish abbreviation as the CPK, is now being audited and the future of this interconnected air-rail hub in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) is accordingly in doubt.
The CPK is one of six megaprojects that the former conservative-nationalist authorities prioritized as part of their plans to have Poland become the CEE’s leader and then establish a “sphere of influence” across this half of Europe for balancing Germany hegemony over the continent. That grand strategic goal is now in shambles after Tusk politically subordinated Poland to Germany by tacitly rescinding reparations demands, militarily via the “military Schengen”, and now economically by reconsidering the CPK.
Coupled with the newfound uncertainty over Poland’s $22 billion arms deal with South Korea last year, any drastic downscaling of the CPK alongside fundamental changes to the country’s military modernization program could deal an irreparable blow to its prior leadership ambitions. Taken together, all these moves in recent months work against Poland’s objective national interests and benefit Berlin, thus extending maximum credence to Kaczynski’s speculation about Tusk being a German agent.
Tacitly rescinding reparations demands is a symbolic sign of fealty to his patrons, while his government’s decision to go along with “military Schengen” and reconsider large parts of last year’s massive arms deal with South Korea weaken its armed forces and create the conditions for dependence on Germany’s. Tusk’s second thoughts about the CPK are the icing on the cake since they’ll kill Poland’s future economic competitiveness and therefore maintain Germany’s flagging one amidst that country’s ongoing struggles.
What’s taking place is Tusk’s systematic subordination of Poland to German hegemony as a quid pro quo for its support of his return to power. Germany correctly assessed that Poland is the greatest obstacle to its envisaged “Fortress Europe”, which refers to its grand strategic goal of peacefully capturing control of the bloc. In response, it sought to dismantle Poland’s competitiveness by installing its loyal proxy who’ll obediently do its bidding to that end, which Tusk is systematically doing as explained in this analysis.
The way in which he’s carrying out his task confirms the prescience of Kaczynski’s warning that “A specific plan is already being prepared, the implementation of which would lead not only to the deprivation of our independence and sovereignty, but even to the annihilation of the Polish state. We would become an area inhabited by Poles, ruled from the outside.” After Poland just politically, militarily, and economically subordinated itself to Berlin, it’s now just a Polish-inhabited polity ruled by Germany.