“It’s A Shitshow Of Illiquidity Everywhere” – Market Mayhem Strikes Ahead Of Long Weekend
One quick glance across your screens today and you would think WW3 actually started or Biden died or some such epochal event… but no. Instead, amid some modest softness in retail sales and surging sentiment, the magnitude of movements in bond yields, bitcoin, big-tech & bank stocks, and the dollar appears to have been driven more by positioning and panic than any fundamentals. As one trader – who has traded for more than one business cycle – put it so eloquently to us on MSG:
“It’s a shitshow of illiquidity everywhere… [insert expletive of choice]… and The Fed hasn’t even started actually yanking the rug out yet!!!”
Even the much more ‘well spoken’ Mohamed El-Erian doesn’t know what to make of the vol…
Per this one-week volatility in yields on 2- and 10-year US government bonds:
It’s getting harder to make sense of what normally would be deemed such outsized daily moves. #bonds #economy #markets #EconTwitter pic.twitter.com/nX0CE4xnlA
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) April 14, 2022
Oh and don’t forget, democracy itself is/was at stake after Elon Musk’s offer for TWTR – that alone probably explains the mayhem </sarcasm>…
So let’s take a look at the market mayhem…
Stocks puked (led by big-tech) – don’t forget that today saw $2.1 trillion opex…
An ugly week too for Nasdaq (down 3%) and S&P (Small Caps managed to rise 0.5% on the week)…
On the week, big-tech was battered along with banks while Energy and Materials outperformed…
Source: Bloomberg
Value and Growth pumped and dumped all over each other all week…
Source: Bloomberg
And “Most Shorted” stocks swung wildly (Except today)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were a total bloodbath today leaving 30Y yields up 20bps on the week (while 2Y managed to hold -5bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
For context, 10Y yields spiked a massive 19bps off early morning highs today!!!
Source: Bloomberg
All of which extended the massive steepening we have seen in the last two weeks…
Source: Bloomberg
Note that rate-hike expectations remain flat (around 9 more hikes in 2022), but the subsequent rate-cut expectations are shifting hawkishly…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar exploded higher…
Source: Bloomberg
Euro puked to two-year lows, dips under $1.08
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was battered back below $40,000…
Source: Bloomberg
The energy complex re-exploded this week with oil prices erasing all of the Biden SPR cunning plan move and surging higher…
And NatGas soaring even more…
For some context, that means US NatGas is now trading at $124 per barrel oil equivalent – more expensive than UK gas currently…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold surged up to one month highs…
Ags also returned to their meltup this week as Putin seemed to hint at more pain to come. Corn soared to multi-year highs…
Finally, Happy Easter, and let’s hope this analog breaks down soon…
Source: Bloomberg
Can an approval rating go negative?
Source: Bloomberg
We’re gonna need someone/something else to blame!