Last week was another mostly tame one in NFL survivor pools, marking the fourth time in five weeks that fewer than five percent of pool entries were knocked out by one upset. That lack of carnage won’t last season, as we saw in Week 4, so making smart, strategic picks is important from here on out. Fortunately, the experts from TeamRankings are here to break down the five most popular Week 6 survivor picks.
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Week 6 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Tips, strategy for picks
Note: “Pick Popularity” numbers below refer to the estimated percentage of survivor pool entries nationwide that have already picked the team in question. Those numbers, as well as a team’s odds to win, can shift over the course of the week, so make sure to check our NFL survivor picks product for all the latest data plus customized pick advice for your pool.
BIG NEWS: Before we get to the picks, we’re happy to announce that we just published our first-ever e-book, Survivor Pool Strategy: What It Takes To Win. It explains all the key elements of survivor pool strategy and includes case studies on specific historical weeks and pool-winning entries. It’s free right now, so download your copy here.
Los Angeles Rams (at New York Giants)
Pick Popularity: 36% (Most popular pick)
Point Spread: -10.5
The Rams are the biggest favorite of the week and currently drawing the most picks. They will face a Giants team that could be without QB Daniel Jones, who is in the concussion protocol, as well as RB Saquon Barkley, who suffered an ankle injury last week. However, the Rams also have fairly high future value. We project them as the third-most valuable team in survivor going forward behind only Buffalo and Tampa Bay.
Los Angeles plays Detroit at home and Houston on the road in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively. Given that over 20 percent of the public used the Rams in Week 1, more than half of a typical pool will have used them after this week, so they will have lower popularity going forward.
MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Week 6 Pick ’em pool advice (link coming soon)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Pick Popularity: 31%
Point Spread: -9.5
The Colts come in as the other popular pick this week, as they get Houston at home. Although the Colts have stumbled out to a 1-4 start, their schedule opens up starting this week. They also get the Jets and Jaguars at home in Weeks 9 and 10, respectively. Those matchups give the Colts some decent future value, especially if their popularity continues to climb this week.
The Colts’ expected value this week likely depends on where the pick popularity numbers end up. The more entries that pick them, the lower their EV will become.
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team
Pick Popularity: 14%
Point Spread: -7.0
The Chiefs come in as the top alternative pick to the Rams and Colts this week. The Chiefs have allowed the most points in the NFL and have been turning the ball over a lot, but Washington is 31st in points allowed, so Kansas City’s offense should have a better time Sunday than it did last week against Buffalo.
The Chiefs have solid future value, though it has declined with their rocky 2-3 start. However, with win odds only slightly lower than the Colts and Rams and with those teams drawing a higher rate of picks, Kansas City has good expected value this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Pick Popularity: 3%
Point Spread: -4.5
Right now, no other team is drawing even five percent of public picks in survivor pools. The Steelers are one of the alternative options, as they face a Seattle team that will have a different starting quarterback (Geno Smith) than Russell Wilson (finger) for the first time since the 2011 season. Wilson’s injury has vaulted the Steelers into being a survivor option, as they are now favored by 4.5 points.
The Steelers have fairly low future value, but they are riskier than the top few options. Deciding whether to use them depends on the value of being contrarian to the Colts/Rams and saving future value in a specific pool.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Pick Popularity: 3%
Point Spread: -4.5
Green Bay is another alternative option, like Pittsburgh, to avoid the most popular picks. The Packers have a similar risk profile as the Steelers. However, they do have more future value, including a matchup at home against Washington next week.
Get our Week 6 survivor pick for your pool!
Every possible NFL Week 6 survivor pick has an expected value in the current week as well as a future value associated with it. Those values can vary significantly based on the characteristics of your pool, such as its size and its rules. It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which pick (or combination of picks, if you’re playing multiple entries) gives you the biggest edge to win your survivor pool. That’s why we’ve spent years building our NFL Survivor Picks product.
Our product asks you a few questions about your survivor pool, then provides customized pick advice using the latest matchup data, betting market odds, and public picking trends. It tracks the picks you’ve already made and even recommends how to split up your picks if you’re playing multiple entries. There’s nothing else like it, and it’s why our subscribers have reported nearly $3 million in survivor pool winnings since 2017.
We invite you to try it out, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!