No. 12 Ole Miss faces No. 1 Alabama on Saturday in a rematch of last season’s SEC West shootout.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium, and the game will be televised on CBS.
Alabama (4-0) remains the team to beat in the SEC under coach Nick Saban. Quarterback Bryce Young has emerged as a Heisman contender with a strong supporting cast. Young has 15 TDs and one interception, and the Crimson Tide ranks fourth in the FBS with 46.5 points per game.
Ole Miss (3-0) ranks first in the FBS in points per game (52.7) and yards per game (635.3) under coach Lane Kiffin, a former offensive coordinator under Saban at Alabama. Matt Corral is the early Heisman favorite after a fantastic September in which he threw for nine TDs and rushed for five.
This should be a high-scoring affair if last year’s 63-48 thriller is any indication. With that in mind, here is all you need to know about betting on the Ole Miss-Alabama matchup.
Ole Miss vs. Alabama odds
- Spread: Alabama -14.5
- Over/under: 79.5
- Moneyline: Alabama -800, Ole Miss +520
Three trends to know
— In the College Football Playoff era, Alabama is 47-2 S/U as a home favorite. The Crimson Tide, however, are 24-25 ATS in those games.
— Alabama is on an 18-game win streak. The Crimson Tide are 12-6 ATS in that stretch, and that includes a 6-1 ATS mark as a home favorite.
— Last year’s game totaled 111 points in rain-soaked conditions. Ole Miss games have hit the over eight out of 12 times in the regular season under Kiffin.
Three things to watch
— Alabama’s big-play receivers. DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle combined for 284 receiving yards in last year’s victory against the Crimson Tide. Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams has been a big-play machine for the Crimson Tide. He is averaging 24.9 yards per catch with three TDs, and he had two kickoff returns for TDs against Southern Miss. He’s emerged as a home-run hitter oppositie Jon Metchie III, who had four catches for 75 yards against the Rebels last season.
— Ole Miss running game. Rebels running backs Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy combined for 248 rushing yards and four TDs in last year’s meeting, and Henry Parrish Jr. has added to that attack this season. The Rebels are going to follow a similar game plan as Florida and attack the Crimson Tide’s front seven with a variety of rushing options. That includes Corral, of course, but the running backs have to replicate that kind of performance.
— Alabama’s running game. Najee Harris scored five TDs in last year’s game, and the Crimson Tide hasn’t quite dominated on the ground in 2021 in the same fashion with new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien. Brian Robinson Jr., Jase McLellan and Roydell Williams are a committee of sorts, and they need to be productive if the Crimson Tide jumps ahead early.
Stat that matters
Turnover margin. There will be points, but can Ole Miss play clean against an Alabama defense with a +5 turnover margin? The Rebels did not commit a turnover in last year’s game and still lost by 15 points. Corral and Young have thrived without making big mistakes, and the team that can steal a possession or two in this game will have the advantage. If it’s the Crimson Tide, then that will be the difference.
Ole Miss vs. Alabama prediction
Both teams continue to be great in the first quarter. Alabama outscores opponents 66-3, but Ole Miss is at 42-7 with one less game. Ole Miss has to stay within one score through the first half to have a chance, and Corral and Young will put on a show with big-time throws in the passing game. It’s just going to come down to the more consistent running game behind them, and the Crimson Tide should have that at home. Corral will beat Young on the stat sheet, but the Crimson Tide will forge ahead after another double-digit victory, but it will hit just at the under.
Final score: Alabama 44, Ole Miss 33