At the beginning of the week, we told readers the dog days of summer have finally arrived with above-average temperatures for most of the country.
By late Thursday, watch/warning/advisory alerts for dangerous heat extended to nearly 200 million Americans as multiple heat domes scorch the Pacific Northwest, Central states, and East Coast.
“Dangerous heat and humidity in the Northwest, Northeast, and central portions of the CONUS have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories. Severe thunderstorms will impact the areas from the Midwest into the Great Lakes through Thursday,” the National Weather Service (NWS) wrote on its website.
“Around 195 million Americans are under a watch/warning/advisory for dangerous heat. Yes, it’s summer, but this type of heat can kill,” the National Weather Service (NWS) warned in a tweet.
Temperature forecasts for the lower 48 states show mean temperatures will peak Friday/Saturday and trend lower through Monday, with another spurt of hot weather slated through Aug. 22.
NYMEX Natgas futures have slumped nearly 4% in the last four sessions as traders begin to price in colder weather next week.
As we’ve shown, average temperatures are peaking for the lower 48 states and should begin to decline after this month.
Meanwhile, hot temps and a megadrought in the US West have fueled 105 large files burning 2.4 million acres in 14 states. The largest fire is Dixie in northern California, burning more than 500,000 acres so far.
Making matters worse, Bloomberg reports a La Niña weather pattern is forecasted to develop during the August-October season and last through the 2021-22 winter.
The La Niña pattern is characterized by unusually low temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is linked to floods and drought. Meanwhile, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are favored for the remainder of the northern hemisphere summer, the NWS’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast. There is about a 60% chance of ENSO neutral conditions for the July-September season, and a 70% chance of La Niña from November through January 2022, the CPC said. The ENSO weather pattern is marked by average long-term ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall and atmospheric winds. Last month, the forecaster said there was a 51% chance of ENSO neutral conditions for the August-October season. -Bloomberg
So back-to-back La Niñas could transform US West into a continued tinderbox?