Goldman’s “Superforecasters” Say 25 Million Americans Could Be Vaccinated By Mid-January

Goldman’s latest coronavirus update focuses on the global race for a vaccine, and how the timeline has changed over the past week since Moderna and Pfizer released their latest data, and Pfizer on Friday applied for its emergency-use authorization from the FDA. Along with a whole mess of new leading indicators like OpenTable reservations and foot-traffic, Wall Street has recently embraced the ‘superforecasters’. Goldman, for example, has launched its “Good Judgment Project”, which has forecast a 59% probability that enough doses to vaccinate 25 million people will be delivered in the US by Jan. 21.

That means we should be roughly caught up with China by then.

Earlier, we learned that Chinese authorities have already vaccinated 1 million people under ’emergency’ provisions that allow the vaccine to be used while data is still being collected in the trials. After China, Russia has the second-most citizens already innoculated, at roughly 10,000.

Here’s how some of the most promising vaccine candidates stack up right now.

While vaccinating will take months if not years, the leading markets (the US, the UK and Europe) expect millions of vaccine doses to be stockpiled by year end.

As far as the leading western vaccines are concerned, Canada and the US have the biggest lead.

One of the most interesting charts in the note showed vaccine demand edging up (as US cases climbed) as skepticism of the FDA’s approval process faded. Goldman cited YouGov survey data, which apparently tracks in real time the percentage of Americans who would voluntarily get a COVID vaccine.

We imagine Dr. Anthony Fauci will be very relieved to see this.

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