After its surprising bounce last month (on a seasonally-adjusted basis, because it crashed NSA), US Industrial Production was expected to decline 0.3% MoM in October. It was worse – down 0.6% MoM from a downwardly revised September print (from +0.3% to +0.1%). October’s decline is the worst since Dec 2022…
On the manufacturing specific sector, consensus was for a 0.4% drop MoM but it was considerably worse, dropping 0.7% MoM (and September’s print was revised down from +0.4% to +0.2% MoM). That is the biggest MoM drop since March.
That is also the 8th straight month of YoY declines for Manufacturing production.
Output was weighed down by a 10% plunge in motor-vehicle production as the annualized rate of car assemblies dropped to 9.22 million units, the least since February 2022.
Starting in September, the United Auto Workers union authorized targeted strikes against the Big Three Detroit automakers, disrupting production at the companies and at their suppliers. The UAW reached tentative agreements with management in late October, laying the groundwork for a rebound in factory output in November.
So theorteically, we should see bounce back next month. Unless demand – as WMT hinted at – has fallen off a cliff.