Paul Tudor Jones Fears ‘Stability Of Society’ As Inflation Soars, “Assumes” US Recession

Infamous trader Paul Tudor Jones believes the US economy is either near or already in the middle of a recession thanks to The Fed’s aggressive tightening:

“I don’t know whether it started now or it started two months ago,” Jones said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday when asked about recession risks.

“We always find out and we are always surprised at when recession officially starts, but I’m assuming we are going to go into one.”

However, the billionaire hedge fund manager noted that this short-term pain is necessary:

“If they don’t keep going and we have high and permanent inflation, it just creates I think more issues down the road,” Jones said.

“If we are going to have long-term prosperity, you have to have a stable currency and a stable way to value it.”

“So yes you have to have something 2% and under inflation in the very long run to have a stable society. So there’s short-term pain associated with long-term gain.

The man who beat the 1987 market crash had a warning for The Fed on pivoting on the first signs of an inflation peak:

“Inflation is a bit like toothpaste. Once you get it out of the tube, it’s hard to get it back in,” Jones said.

“The Fed is furiously trying to wash that taste out of their mouth… If we go into recession, that has really negative consequences for a variety of assets.”

Looking further ahead, Jones warned that the 2020s could be marked by significant “fiscal retrenchment,” as governments move away from the easy-money policies of the previous decade.

“Whoever is the president in [2024] is going to be dealing with debt dynamics that are so dire… that we’re going to have fiscal retrenchment,” he said.

Finally, Jones noted that these are “spectacular” times for macro, however, which are usually not good times for the general investment strategies of owning stocks or bonds, he added, going to describe the playbook:

“Most recessions last about 300 days from the commencement of it,” Jones said.

“The stock market is down, say, 10%. The first thing that will happen is short rates will stop going up and start going down before the stock market actually bottoms.

Macro works when everything is broken a bit, Jones said.

Meanwhile, once the Fed stops raising interest rates, the market could see “a massive rally in a variety beaten-down inflation trades,” the legendary hedge fund manager said.

This would include cryptos which Jones says he has a “very minor allocation.”

Watch the full interview below:

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