US Dollar, USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP, USD/IDR – ASEAN Technical Analysis
- The US Dollar faired relatively well against ASEAN currencies last week
- USD/SGD was unable to clear support, USD/THB struggling to fall more
- USD/PHP was range-bound as uptrend paused, USD/IDR eyes 50-day SMA
Singapore Dollar Technical Outlook – Slightly Bearish
The US Dollar steadied against the Singapore Dollar following losses since July. USD/SGD was unable to clear the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3753. That reinforced the price as key support. Meanwhile, the pair was unable to hold a close under the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Still, the near-term downtrend remains in play. A breakout under these key support levels would expose the May low at 1.3660. Otherwise, a turn higher and above the 50-day line could open the door to revisiting the July peak.
USD/SGD Daily Chart
Thai Baht Technical Outlook – Neutral
The US Dollar extended losses against the Thai Baht. However, USD/THB left behind a couple of signals that the near-term downtrend is losing steam. The first is a Hammer candlestick pattern. This is a sign of indecision as prices tested the 50-day SMA. The latter also held, reinforcing the dominant uptrend. A confirmatory close under the line would undermine the Hammer and open the door to extending losses. That would place the focus on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 35.154. Beyond that is the 78.6% level at 34.666. Otherwise, a turn higher may open the door to revisiting the July high at 36.949.
USD/THB Daily Chart
Philippine Peso Technical Outlook – Neutral
The US Dollar consolidated against the Philippine Peso this past week. This prevented PHP from extending gains since July. USD/PHP was unable to pierce through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 55.2627 after clearing the 20-day SMA. As such, the 50-line is fast approaching and may hold as support, perhaps maintaining the broader upside focus. That may place the focus back on the July peak at 56.527. Otherwise, further losses would shift the outlook increasingly bearish, bringing the 38.2% retracement closer at 54.4806.
USD/PHP Daily Chart
Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook – Neutral
The US Dollar lost some ground to the Indonesian Rupiah this past week. That said, USD/IDR struggled to make meaningful downside progress. Prices remain under the 20-day SMA, but the 50-line remains to be tested. As such, it could hold as support and maintain the dominant upside focus. Breaking under the line would shift the outlook increasingly bearish, placing the focus on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 14798. Beyond the latter is the May high at 14730, which could hold as new support. Resuming gains would place the focus back on the July peak at 15030.
USD/IDR Daily Chart
–— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter