Why is NATO so anxious to induct multiple countries near the borders of Russia into the fold without concern for the geopolitical consequences? Probably because the war in Ukraine is not going so well. Or, perhaps the goal is to deliberately create an even wider conflict. Either way, NATO’s behavior suggests that there is considerable information that is not being revealed to the general public.
NATO Chief General Jens Stoltenberg has been pushing for swift approval of applications from Sweden and Finland, with Department of Defense officials in the US calling on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to quickly approve the requests.
With mainstream media propaganda constant for the past few months when it comes to the Ukraine situation, it has been hard to gauge the facts surrounding the conflict. Only in recent weeks have there been admissions from Ukrainian leadership hinting at the true conditions on the ground. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself acknowledge that Ukrainian casualties are high: 60 – 100 per day. Other sources indicate casualties of 100 – 200 soldiers per day. The Ukrainians have to present a number that’s large enough to warrant more NATO armaments and money while making sure it’s not so high that it demoralizes their troops in the field.
The narrative from the western governments and the media has been the exact opposite. They claim that Russia has essentially “already lost” and that it’s only a matter of time before they are run out of Ukraine. Regardless of what side you think is right or wrong in the war, the only way to evaluate the situation is to step outside the notions perpetuated by the media and look at the facts objectively. The media will never offer an honest evaluation, that’s not what they are paid to do.
There is a very old military rule, possibly first illustrated by Sun Tzu in The Art Of War, that warns leaders to never start believing their own propaganda. This is a mistake that America made in the Vietnam War. It’s a mistake we made during our occupation of Afghanistan. And, it seems to be a mistake NATO is making in their observations on Ukraine.
Another explanation is that NATO is well aware of the facts on the ground, and the narrative they are creating about a failing Russian advance is meant for the western public only. When the conflict goes south for the Ukrainians, as is already happening, and Zelenskyy is run out of the country, maybe the hope is that the public will be so enraged and in shock that they will support a military buildup in other countries neighboring Russia? Or, even support American and European boots on the ground in Ukraine (beyond the “advisers” that are already there)?
It’s hard to say, but the Kremlin has made it clear that Finland and Sweden joining NATO would represent an extreme escalation.
Lithuania has added to the tensions by blocking exports from Russia traveling by railway to Kalingrad, the home of Russia’s Baltic fleet. Russia has issued a warning that this represents a serious violation of Russia’s access to the region.
The speed at which NATO members are increasing potential conflict with Russia suggests that Ukraine is soon to fall and new battle lines are being drawn before this happens. Russia has seen significant advances in eastern and southern Ukraine, and the majority of economic production including food production in the country has been cut in half. This has been accomplished mostly without advanced weaponry such as cruise missiles and other more effective Russian armaments. They have also not targeted primary utilities or infrastructure (such as electricity or water) in many areas of Ukraine, which suggests an attempt at limited collateral damage. Escalation by NATO could trigger more aggressive actions by Russia within the region.
Again, it does not matter what “side” you support, the writing is on the wall. NATO appears to already be preparing for Ukraine to collapse. It’s important to accept logistical realities and not get caught up in the fervor of propaganda because failure can be a weapon as much as success. When Ukraine falls, will western populations be so incensed that they can be tricked into an even larger war?