There’s no doubt that an official as prominent as Schoenbach is, who represents the EU’s de facto leader, would be well informed of the US-led West’s strategic calculations towards Russia. That’s why his words should be interpreted as the truth of what’s really being discussed behind closed doors right now.
German Vice-Admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach was his country’s naval chief until Saturday when he was pressured into resigning after comments that he made during a Q&A session at one of India’s top think tanks provoked an international scandal. Schoenbach simply spoke common strategic sense about Russia, namely that the Eurasian Great Power should be shown the respect that it deserves in order to de-escalate tensions in Europe and thus enable the US-led West to focus more on “containing” China.
To be clear, it would be best for the US-led West not to attempt to contain either of those two countries. Nevertheless, its permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) aren’t even countenancing that pragmatic possibility, instead being fiercely divided over whether they should put more pressure on Russia or China. The anti-Chinese faction that’s one of former US President Donald Trump’s most enduring legacies currently seems to be calling the shots.
That explains why the Biden Administration is currently negotiating with Russia over its security guarantee proposals that Moscow declared to be its red lines. These concern the inadmissibility of NATO’s further eastern expansion, an agreement not to deploy strike weapons near Russia’s borders, and rolling back NATO’s regional infrastructure to its pre-1997 status quo prior to the former Warsaw Pact countries’ membership in the bloc.
If the US can successfully de-escalate tensions with Russia in Europe, then the anti-Chinese faction believes that this can subsequently enable the Pentagon and its NATO allies to eventually redeploy more of their forces from there to the Indo-Pacific in order to more aggressively “contain” China. It was this grand strategic calculation that Schoenbach publicly spoke about, though these plans are “politically incorrect” to discuss in the current context.
That’s because the subversive anti-Russian “deep state” faction is actively trying to sabotage them for ideological reasons related to their belief that Moscow constitutes a greater long-term strategic threat to the US-led West than China does. They’re leveraging their extensive networks of influence in the Baltic States, Poland, Ukraine, the UK, and even over the US’ own academia, media, and political officials to do everything they can to derail the current security guarantee talks.
To the Biden Administration’s credit, the very fact that US diplomats are continuing to meet with their Russian counterparts despite any visible progress confirms their sincerity in at least considering some kind of deal. If it comes to pass, it might not be exactly what Moscow hopes for in the sense of providing legal guarantees to that Eurasian Great Power but could potentially comprise a series of so-called “gentlemen’s agreements” for informally complying with its requests.
Even though Russia would press to have them in writing, that might still be sufficient for temporarily de-escalating tensions, showing some goodwill on the US’ side, and enabling America to “save face” before the considerable pressure put upon it on all fronts by the subversive anti-Russian “deep state” faction not to “compromise” on the country’s so-called “principles”. After all, the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis involved such a deal whereby the US quietly withdrew its nuclear missile from Turkey and Italy.
Back then, the world considered the de-escalation of that crisis to have been due to the former USSR’s unilateral withdrawal of its own such missiles from Cuba even though it’s now known that this was actually a quid pro quo whereby Moscow let Washington “save face” in the interests of the “greater good”. Something similar might be in the works, at least judging by the sensible grand strategic calculations that Schoenbach revealed despite them being “politically incorrect” to publicly discuss.
He was pressured to resign because he said what no Western official was seemingly supposed to speak about at this ultra-sensitive moment in time. The US cannot afford to have anyone “spill the means” at this pivotal point no matter how well-intended they are. It can’t be known for sure, but the reason why Schoenbach might have talked about these calculations was because of how comfortable he felt while speaking with Indian experts.
Observers should remember that President Putin’s visit to that South Asian state early last month was a global geostrategic game-changer since the whopping 99-paragraph reaffirmation of their special and privileged strategic partnership amounted to the undeclared intent of those two Great Powers to explore the possibility of jointly assembling a new Non-Aligned Movement (“Neo-NAM”) in an effort to create a third pole of influence in the increasingly bi-multipolar world order.
The spirit of this grand strategic game-changer aligns with the calculations that Schoenbach articulated while answering questions from some of India’s top experts. Germany and the rest of the US-led West must have paid close attention to the outcome of President Putin’s visit last month, which could explain why the former German naval chief felt that this was the right place to talk about the discussions that are presumably taking place at the highest levels when it comes to de-escalating tensions with Russia.
He didn’t make a “mistake” per se since what he revealed was arguably accurate, but the “problem” was that he did so publicly and therefore made some of the US’ vassals uncomfortable, especially those that are under the influence of its subversive anti-Russian “deep state” faction. In order to “save face”, he was forced to resign, though what he said won’t be forgotten because of how strategically sensible it is from the perspective of the US’ predominant anti-Chinese “deep state” faction.
It’s too early to tell whether this vision will eventually unfold or if it’ll be offset by the anti-Russian “deep state” faction’s subversive efforts, but it’s nonetheless worthwhile to seriously consider this scenario. There’s no doubt that an official as prominent as Schoenbach is, who represents the EU’s de facto leader, would be well informed of the US-led West’s strategic calculations towards Russia. That’s why his words should be interpreted as the truth of what’s really being discussed behind closed doors right now.