Stocks, Bonds, & The Dollar Bid As Fed Admits Stagflation Fears

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The Fed came clean about its big fear today in the FOMC Minutes:

“The staff continued to judge that the risks to the baseline projection for economic activity were skewed to the downside and that the risks around the inflation projection were skewed to the upside.”

Weaker growth, stronger inflation – the definition of stagflation…

Source: Bloomberg

A 25bps rate-hike is now fully priced-in for June next year…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks were mixed on the day. Nasdaq outperformed, The Dow lagged, scrambling to hold unch…

Growth stocks were hit at the open again today but found a bid for the rest of the day to close green (still notably underperforming Value on the week)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were also mixed with the short-end underperforming (2Y +3bps, 30Y -6bps)

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields tumbled back below 2.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

As the yield curve (2s30s) flattened to new cycle lows (its flattest since Sept 2020)…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields double-topped and slipped back lower…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar rose for the 4th straight day, with the same pattern playing out – bid during the European session only…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar broke above the Sept 2020 high and is now at its highest since July 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was choppy today, but ended back above $57,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the day marginally higher, holding above the FOMC Statement level…

Oil prices held on to yesterday’s post-SPR-Release gains…

Was this how Biden felt as he announced the SPR release?

Finally, for a sense of the difference between the “real” and the “fake” economy, there’s this…

h/t @MichaelAArouet

Let’s all give thanks for The Fed’s matrix-creation.



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