FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: Fed Chair Testimony; China Manufacturing PMI; Eurozone Inflation Rate; US PCE; US Manufacturing ISM & PMI

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FX Week Ahead Overview:

  • The last days of September bring about a slew of important data releases from some of the world’s major economies.
  • The US is in focus over the coming days with Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to testify in front of the Senate Banking Committee, while September US PCE data and two gauges of US manufacturing activity are due.
  • We’ll get a glimpse of Chinese economic activity this week as well as two sets of inflation data from Europe – one for Germany, one for the Eurozone.

For the full week ahead, please visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

09/28 TUESDAY | 14:00 GMT | USD Fed Chair Powell Testimony

Taper tantrum fears may hit a fever pitch this week when Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speak in front of US Senators on Tuesday. The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs will host a hearing for the “CARES Act Oversight of the Treasury and Federal Reserve: Supporting an Equitable Pandemic Recovery.” It appears that US Treasury yields are already pricing in economic optimism from both the Fed Chair and the Secretary of the Treasury, and if the current and former Fed Chairs deliver on those expectations, more upside could be ahead of the US Dollar.

09/30 THURSDAY | 01:00 GMT | CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI (SEP)

With contagion fears swirling thanks to China’s second largest property developer, Evergrande, appearing to default in recent days, questions are emerging about a broader slowdown to the Chinese economy. Until September, there were signs that China’s credit impulse was fading, which has historically aligned with weaker PMI readings.

The upcoming data release is due to show that China’s manufacturing sector is still growing, but barely at all. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the September China NBS manufacturing PMI is expected to arrive at 50.1, the same reading as in August. Weakness – and even a drop into contraction territory – in Chinese PMI readings may prove problematic for major currencies like the reinvigorated Australian and New Zealand Dollars.

10/01 FRIDAY | 09:00 GMT | EUR Inflation Rate (Flash) (SEP)

According to a Bloomberg News survey, the September Eurozone inflation rate (HICP) is forecast to show an increase of +0.4% from +0.4% (m/m) and +3.3% from +3% (y/y), while the core reading is due in at +1.9% from +1.6% (y/y). The data may give greater credibility to last week’s anonymously sourced reports, which suggested that ECB officials are readying to soon make an announcement that they will wind down their QE program perhaps as early as December (when the next Staff Economic Projections are released).

10/01 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD PCE Price Index (SEP)

The September US inflation rate (PCE) report will be released this Friday, and according to a Bloomberg News survey, further stabilization in price pressures is anticipated. Headline inflation (PCE deflator) is due in at +4.2% (y/y) unchanged, while core inflation (Core PCE) is due in at +3.5% from +3.6% (y/y). As the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the sustained elevation may help stoke speculation that the FOMC will announce its taper intentions as soon as its next meeting in November. After all, in the September Fed meeting policy statement, the word “transitory” was not mentioned even once.

10/01 FRIDAY | 13:45, 14:00 GMT | USD Markit Manufacturing PMI Final, ISM Manufacturing PMI (SEP)

The summer slowdown, thanks in part to delta variant infections rates surging higher, may have continued in September. According to Bloomberg News surveys, both the Markit US manufacturing PMI (final) and ISM manufacturing PMI readings for September are expected to show slight deceleration: from 61.1 to 60.5 for the former; and from 59.6 from 59.9 for the latter. Historically speaking, these are both still elevated readings, giving greater credence to the idea that the US economy is in a place that may make a taper announcement more palatable.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist





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