In recent weeks, we have seen a barrage of evidence that the delta-variant-driven summer COVID “wave” (amplified, as it was, by increased testing) has finally peaked. First, the CDC pointed to regional data from the south and the northeast to show that the COVID wave had peaked in the original “hotspots”. Then we shared research from BofA analyst Hans Mikkelsen, who showed that the delta of the delta wave had finally dropped into negative territory. And of course, the whole time, Dr. Scott Gottlieb has been sharing projections showing the wave was set to peak in late August or early September.
But now, as the latest CDC data show, it’s not just cases, but also hospitalizations, that are showing signs of a peak. The latest daily data show hospitalizations declining for the first time since June.
According to the Epoch Times, hospital admissions for COVID-19 patients in the United States are declining for the first time since late June, suggesting the latest surge has peaked. The seven-day average of new daily hospitalizations with confirmed COVID-19 dropped by 2.4% from a week earlier to about 12,280 – the first such drop since around June 27, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. It comes as fewer hospitalizations are being reported in Florida, Texas, and other Southern states, the agency said.
If they continue to trend lower at their current rate, the drop in hospitalizations has been roughly in line with BofA’s “optimistic” scenario.
Meanwhile, here’s a chart of daily case numbers in the US.
And it’s not just hospitalizations and cases that are showing signs of peaking. The CDC’s COVID-19 tracker shows that the seven-day average for both deaths and cases appears to be leveling out. Previous surges of cases, including in the spring of 2020, in late July to early August 2020, and January 2021, all leveled out and dropped, fitting a similar pattern.
During prior surges, the COVID-19 death rate appeared to be higher, according to the CDC’s data. For example, on Jan. 13 of this year, which saw the most COVID-19 deaths per day, the number of daily deaths was about 4,169, with about 240K daily cases. Amid the current surge, on Aug. 31 the CDC reported the number of daily deaths (seven-day average) to be about 985, with about 150K daily cases.
Even though recent studies have showed that vaccines are far from perfect, roughly 74.4% of all US adults have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. And natural immunity might be even more extensive than previously believed. A new study published in Nature last week revealed that about one-third of all Americans, or more than 100MM people, had likely been infected with COVID-19 by the end of 2020. Officially, about 19.6MM cases of the virus were confirmed across the country.
A blockbuster study from Israel recently showed that natural immunity confers better protection against the delta variant than vaccine-induced immunity.
After all this, our biggest question is: why does the mainstream press only report on hospitals kinda-sorta nearing capacity in their ICUs, and the endless parade of cities and states imposing mask mandates and vaccine mandates, or bans on mask and vaccine mandates. Maybe it’s time to cover some ‘good news’ related to COVID for a change?