Yesterday we joked that, now that all the “good” covid vaccine news have been priced in, if stocks are to go up then the vaccine makers must keep their mouth shut for the next few weeks:
Dear vaccine makers: please do not make any announcement for the next 2 weeks – only way stocks can go up
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 18, 2020
Turns out the joke was on us, because shortly after the latest positive coronavirus vaccine news, this time from AstraZeneca, which hit just before 2am ET…
- *ASTRA, OXFORD CONFIRM VACCINE’S IMMUNE RESPONSE IN OLDER ADULTS
… futures promptly tumbled, hitting session lows just after the European open.
Why? Because as we “joked”, markets are now ignoring any incremental “good” vaccine news, and instead equity investors seem to be more concerned about lockdown measures to stop the spread of the virus, especially following yesterday’s surprise announcement that New York would shutter its schools again, a move which is expected to be copied by other cities across the country. Meanwhile, as trillions of dollars in stimulus and optimism around a vaccine have driven Wall Street to record highs following a coronavirus-driven crash in March, investors have grown wary of the near-term damage caused by tightening restrictions and in the absence of fresh stimulus measures.
“The markets probably overshot the vaccine news and are probably just retreating slightly now because case numbers are going up,” said Gavin Rochussen, chief executive of UK-based asset manager Polar Capital. “The vaccine will take time to be delivered, to be administered and so on, and I think what’s happening is markets are realising that … it’s not just the silver bullet, it will take time.”
As Bloomberg put it, “it all means that investors are grappling with how long and how severe the pandemic will be in the months ahead. There’s plenty of economic stress now as businesses struggle under lockdowns, but scientists are also rapidly advancing several vaccine candidates to get life back to normal.”
As a result, the S&P 500 index was set for its third straight session of losses, retreating further from an all-time high hit on Monday after positive data was released on a coronavirus vaccine. L Brands surged 16.1% premarket after posting better-than-expected quarterly results, helped by record sales growth at Bath & Body Works and higher demand for Victoria’s Secret lingerie. Elsewhere, Macy’s fell 4% after it reported a more than 20% fall in third-quarter comparable sales, while Nvidia slipped 1.3% after company executives said data center chip sales would fall slightly in the fourth quarter.
The weaker sentiment was triggered by a late U.S. sell-off that saw the S&P 500 close down 1.1% following news that COVID-19 deaths in the US had passed 250,000 while New York City’s schools called a halt to in-classroom instruction, the latest in restrictions to curb the spread of the virus.
While positive news about potential vaccines had helped push the MSCI World Index to a record high earlier in the week, it was promptly dragged back as a host of countries announced record infection rates and tougher lockdowns. As a result, world stocks and US equity futures eased for the third day in a row and oil fell on Thursday.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 was down 0.6%, with all regions in the red; cyclical shares took the brunt of the retreat after Norwegian Air Shuttle plunged 16% after seeking protection from creditors, while Germany’s Thyssenkrupp tumbled after saying it would slash 11,000 jobs amid a cash burn at its steel business. Nvidia dropped in U.S. pre-market trading after warning that data-center chip sales will decline slightly.
Earlier in the session, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the first time in 14 days, down -0.4%, and ending the longest winning run since 1988, while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.3% higher despite somber news in Japan, which saw a record number of cases and a rise in Tokyo’s pandemic alert level.
In FX, the dollar rose to a session high in early European hours; the euro fell a second day while the yen ended a five-day advance after rising briefly following a report that Tokyo was set to record more than 500 new cases for the first time on Thursday. Sterling weakened, down 0.4% against the dollar and 0.2% per euro, on a report Europe’s leaders would demand the European Commission publish Brexit no-deal plans as the deadline for trade talks go down to the wire; interbank dealers sold the pound in Asian session following a Times article that European leaders want to give businesses more clarity on any potential no-deal with the U.K. Turkey’s lira jumped after the country’s new central bank governor raised the benchmark interest rate by a record 475bps.
“The vaccines news are a positive medium-term impulse for the global economic outlook and investors are trying to weigh that against the prospect of an imminent stalling of the European and U.S. recovery amid the prospect of extensions of current lockdown measures,” said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB.
In commodities, oil prices dropped as virus restrictions crimped demand expectations. Despite the equity market caution, gold traders continued to take a longer-term view, betting the COVID-19 vaccines would translate into a quicker economic recovery. That sent the precious metal to a one-week low. Bitcoin also pulled back and last stood at $17,599.
On the data front, all eyes will be on the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims data due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Claims are expected to edge down to 707,000 in the week ended Nov. 14, from 709,000 in the week before.
In rates, treasuries were little changed in early U.S. trading after paring gains amassed during Asia session, where regional demand included fast-money activity in long-end. Nominal 10-year yield is lower by just over 12bp at 0.857%, in line with bunds; gilts lag, cheaper by 1bp vs Treasuries. Futures roll activity is expected to pick up, and another batch of coupon supply arrives in the form of a $12b reopening of 10-year TIPS. There will be few rate locks as IG credit issuance is expected to moderate after 29 borrowers raised more than $32b over past three days, exceeding the total expected for the week.
Looking at day ahead now, the economic data slate includes initial jobless claims, November Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), October existing homes sales (10am) and November Kansas City Fed manufacturing (11am). We also get remarks from ECB President Lagarde, as well as from the ECB’s Schnabel, Villeroy, Hernandez de Cos, and the Fed’s Mester and Rosengren. There’ll also be monetary policy decisions from Bank Indonesia, the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Data releases including the weekly initial jobless claims from the US, as well as October’s leading index and existing home sales. Along with that, there’ll be the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook index and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for November. Finally, EU leaders will be meeting via videoconference tonight.
- S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,558
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 387.26
- MXAP down 0.4% to 187.57
- MXAPJ down 0.7% to 618.73
- Nikkei down 0.4% to 25,634.34
- Topix up 0.3% to 1,726.41
- Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 26,356.97
- Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,363.09
- Sensex down 1% to 43,740.97
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,547.23
- Kospi up 0.07% to 2,547.42
- Brent Futures down 0.2% to $44.27/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,863.29
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 92.61
- German 10Y yield fell 2.1 bps to -0.575%
- Euro down 0.2% to $1.1830
- Brent Futures down 0.2% to $44.27/bbl
- Italian 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 0.543%
- Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 0.075%
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- The European Union is facing a grueling battle to persuade Hungary and Poland to row back threats endangering billions of euros of pandemic-relief and budget funds as central bank chief Christine Lagarde warns of the dangers of a delay
- The U.K. and Canada are on the brink of signing a new trade agreement to replace the existing deal Britain has through European Union membership.
- The euro was the most used currency for global payments last month, the first time it has outpaced the dollar since February 2013, according to data from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, which handles cross-border payment messages for more than 11,000 financial institutions in 200 countries.
- A series of bets set up to exploit the replacement of Libor as a bond benchmark looked scuppered on Wednesday, after a statement from its administrators raised question marks about next year’s transition date
- Denmark’s central bank says its latest study into the long-term effects of negative interest rates shows the policy works better than is widely appreciated
- Lonza Group AG made its first commercial batch of the main ingredient in Moderna Inc.’s Covid-19 vaccine candidate in the U.S. last week and plans to start European production by the end of the month, Chairman Albert Baehny said
A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk
Asian bourses were mixed as the region partially shrugged-off the risk-averse mood that rolled over from US where early vaccine optimism faded amid COVID-19 concerns and with selling exacerbated heading into the closing bell on Wall Street after New York City Mayor De Blasio announced to close all public schools from today after the 7-day average positive testing rate reached the 3% threshold. Furthermore, there was also recent commentary from Goldman Sachs that month-end pension rebalancing estimates were at a net USD 36bln of equities to sell and was the fourth-largest sell estimate going back 20yrs. ASX 200 (+0.3%) declined at the open in which notable weakness in healthcare and the commodity-related stocks briefly dragged the index beneath the 6500 level where it then found support to recoup its losses, while the largest-weighted financials sector kept afloat despite the mixed fortunes of its constituents with insurers IAG, Suncorp and QBE among the worst performers after the NSW Supreme Court ruled in favour of policyholders on a test case regarding business interruption policies, whereby it decided that pandemic exclusions were not valid. Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) declined as Japan’s exporters remained at the mercy of a stronger currency and with the mood clouded by the ongoing spike in COVID-19 infections, although there were some bright spots including Sharp which rallied on news it will return to the blue-chip index from December 2nd. Hang Seng (-0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) conformed to the indecisive picture which was not helped by another PBoC liquidity drain and recent comments from a PBoC researcher who sees little room for a rate reduction and suggested that current rates in the market are already lower than the natural equilibrium level, while shares in one of China’s largest securities companies Haitong Securities were heavily pressured after China alleged manipulation by the Co. in an expanding probe into the recent default by a state-owned coal miner. Finally, 10yr JGBs were steady despite the negative picture in Japanese stocks with demand hampered after recent indecision in T-notes following a weak 20yr auction and the lack of BoJ purchases in the market today.
Top Asian News
- Morrison Defiant After China Airs 14 Grievances With Australia
- Southeast Asia Virus Hotspots Indonesia, Philippines Cut Rates
- China’s Booming Exports Mean Beijing Can Handle Strong Yuan
- Singapore Could Still Live With Virus Curbs For More Than a Year
European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -1.0%) have extended on opening losses as markets continue to balance the positive tenor of vaccine updates against the fallout from near-term COVID restrictions. Sentiment ahead of the cash open was already relatively downbeat with selling in the US late doors yesterday exacerbated by news that the 7-day rolling average for the positivity rate in the NYC had met the 3% threshold, triggering the closure of public schools. Throughout the European session, selling has picked up without much in the way of fresh incremental newsflow behind the price action. All sectors trade in the red with some of the more cyclical exposed industries, namely, oil & gas, travel & leisure and banks underperforming peers. Note, stateside, losses are relatively broad-based with selling pressure in the pre-market more indiscriminate. Health care is posting slightly shallower losses than most with AstraZeneca (+0.1%) mildly firmer in the wake of an update in The Lancet which showed the Co.’s COVID-19 vaccine has produced a strong immune response among elderly adults, whilst first efficacy data from Phase III trials could be possible in the coming weeks. ThyssenKrupp (-6.7%) are a stand out underperformer in Europe after the Co. announced that it will need to lower its headcount by a further 5k alongside its FY earnings with management downbeat on the prospect for the steel sector, stating the state support alone will not be enough to solve the issues facing the industry. To the upside, Royal Mail (+6.5%) sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after raising its FY outlook alongside H1 earnings with the Co. a beneficiary in the pick-up in online shopping amid the pandemic.
Top European News
- No Upside for Europe Stocks Has Strategists Looking to 2021
- Royal Mail Recovery Gathers Pace as Virus Boosts Parcels
- EU May Recommend Cross-Border Power Prices For Offshore Wind
In FX, not quite a case of zeros from heroes, but the Kiwi, Aussie and Pound have fallen to the bottom of the G10 ranks having outperformed of late, as risk aversion returns to replace relief or euphoria over latest positive anti-virus test results. Indeed, Nzd/Usd has relinquished 0.6900+ status, Aud/Usd 0.7300 even though jobs data smashed forecasts overnight and Cable looks prone to losing grip of the 1.3200 handle less than a day after probing beyond the round number above, while Eur/Gbp has rebounded firmly through 0.8950 from circa 0.8915 at one stage on Wednesday. For Sterling specifically, no deal Brexit concerns have also reared amidst reports that EU Governments are getting impatient with the ongoing stalemate and want the European Commission to draw up an emergency plan in the event that a trade deal with the UK is still not agreed by tomorrow when Barnier is scheduled to brief ambassadors on the state of play.
- USD – The Dollar is back in the ascendency and more solid safe-haven ground, as sentiment sours following an all too brief boost from Pfizer, as another company in the hunt to get a vaccine approved, Astrazeneca, says it’s too premature to declare that its drug can stop coronavirus. Meanwhile, the resurgence has reached worrying levels in NY where schools will close from today as the 7-day average testing positivity rate hit the 3% threshold. Hence, the DXY has extended its recovery gains from 92.207 yesterday to 92.727 at best, so far, ahead of a busy US agenda including data and more from the Fed.
- JPY/EUR/CAD/CHF – All handing back gains vs the Greenback, or losing momentum, as the Yen retreats to sub-104.00 compared a peak circa 103.65 on Wednesday, the Euro pulls back below 1.1850 following a couple of 1.1900 near misses, the Loonie retests support around 1.3100 from 1.3050+ highs in wake of, if not prompted by firmer than expected Canadian CPI, and the Franc reverses on its 0.9100 and 1.0800 pivots, latter against the Euro. Note, little reaction to a slightly wider Swiss trade surplus as key watch exports fell again, albeit at a slower pace.
- SCANDI/EM – The Sek has not been able sustain any positive momentum from a marked decline in Swedish unemployment rates against the risk-off backdrop that is also weighing on crude prices and the Nok more so than Norwegian Q4 oil investment projections. However, the Try is holding up relatively well in anticipation of a big benchmark rate hike from the CBRT and on the decision itself, which was in-line with consensus, the TRY appreciated markedly but has since retraced much of this move; in contrast to the SARB that is seen standing pat later. Elsewhere, broad depreciation in line with the general deterioration in market tone and dovish Central Bank moves as the Indonesian and Philippine rates were eased 25 bp against consensus for no change.
In commodities, WTI and Brent prices have been subject to the general pull-back in risk sentiment this morning with the European session commencing in negative territory and subsequently extending on this shortly after the cash equity open. Fundamentally, newsflow explicitly for the crude complex is relatively light with focus turning back to the demand side of the equation on the back of further COVID-19 closures in New York as cases globally continue to rise – notably, Japan, which is the 4th largest global importer of oil, has seen cases increase by a record figure and cross the 500 mark in Tokyo on a daily basis for the first time. Currently, the benchmarks are posting losses in excess of 1.0% and reside in proximity to session lows; given this dynamic, the Stoxx 600 oil & gas sector is the morning laggard. Moving to metals and in-spite of the downbeat risk dynamic spot gold is subdued given USD dynamics as the DXY eclipses Tuesday’s high with just the Monday peak in the near-term; at present the yellow metal is subdued by around USD 10/oz but is off session lows at USD 1855/oz. Elsewhere, the debut of China’s bonded copper futures closed down by 1.2% this morning as participants highlight the listing price of CNY 47.68k/tonne was somewhat high.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 700,000, prior 709,000; Continuing Claims, est. 6.4m, prior 6.79m
- 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 23, prior 32.3
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, prior 43; Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 48
- 10am: Leading Index, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%
- 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 6.47m, prior 6.54m; Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -1.07%, prior 9.4%
- 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 10.5, prior 13
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I’m afraid it’s that time of year. The air is getting colder, nights are drawing in and the first chestnuts are roasting on an open fire. Yes for us analysts the stress of 2021 outlook season is now upon us. In my credit team we like more stress than most and today we publish the first of three outlooks before the end of the month. Don’t worry it’s not us hedging our bets with a bullish, bearish and neutral one. Instead this morning we’ve published a quick top down macro overview of what we think 2021 will bring and then we’ll have more detailed US/EU IG and LevFin outlooks out just after Thanksgiving from Michal Jezek and Craig Nicol. For today’s overview we get caught up in the vaccine euphoria and think the rally and compression trade has further to go, especially over the next 6 months. We think the market might be under-estimating the ability and desire to return towards normal in H1 next year, especially in a period where the authorities will still be injecting huge liquidity. We have US and European IG both tightening -12bps out to the of end H1 ’21 and US/European HY around -70bps tighter over the same period. H2 could see a small retracement as although the recovery will still be ongoing we think there may be some concern over authorities trying to withdraw some support over the subsequent coming quarters ahead. See the report here.
Our Economists have also updated their latest World Outlook which incorporates their latest views on the Global economy in 2021 and beyond. The outlook has improved on balance since their last snapshot in mid-September. The primary driver has been the good news on the vaccine front, which has pulled forward their timelines one or two quarters on reaching herd immunity in some developed economies. This development, by itself, has boosted GDP forecasts in Europe and the US next year by nearly one percentage point even if the likely near-term growth hits offsets some of this. Much more can be found here.
Whether it be outlooks or markets it’s all about vaccines and the virus at the moment. Risk assets actually slipped late in the US session, and closed at the lows (S&P 500 -1.16%), largely due to NYC school closures coming into force again today after the city’s positivity rate of first time Covid-19 tests rose over 3%. In terms of the sectoral moves, every industry group in the US ended lower except for Autos (+1.14%), while the losses were led by Energy (-2.88%) and Utilities (-1.94%).
Meanwhile the NASDAQ fluctuated between gains and losses throughout the day before closing -0.82% lower after the late selloff, though tech stocks tried to rally on the initial headline. The VIX index jumped back closer to 24 after threatening to go back below 20 in recent days for the first time since the pandemic hit.
Following this Asian markets are trading mixed this morning with the Nikkei (-0.87%), Hang Seng (-0.22%) and Kospi (-0.50%) down while, the Shanghai Comp (+0.11%), and ASX (+0.25%) are up. Futures on the S&P are also down a modest -0.07% while those on the Dax are down -0.85% with European markets playing catch up after yesterday’s late US market moves. In FX, sterling is down -0.33% this morning likely on an overnight report from the Times that the European leaders will press the European Commission to publish no-deal plans so businesses have some clarity on how to prepare for a worst-case scenario. Meanwhile, the US dollar index is up +0.16% and yields on 10y USTs are down -1.8bps. Elsewhere, gold prices are down -0.25%.
In other news this morning, Japan’s largest labour union chief said that the union would push for a 4% wage increase, including base pay despite the current pandemic. The chief said that “If we say wage growth is impossible this time because of Covid, then we’ll be totally neglecting our responsibility to the economy,” and added “There is a serious concern” that Japan could fall back into deflation without pay gains. Elsewhere, here in the UK, PM Johnson is expected to announce today an extra GBP 16.5bn in defense spending over the next 4 years as he will lay out plans for an agency dedicated to artificial intelligence, the creation of a National Cyber Force, and a new Space Command capable of launching its first rocket in 2022. Also in the U.K., Bloomberg reported overnight that the country is close to signing a trade deal with Canada replacing that which will be lost when leaving the transition period with the EU.
Back to markets and the weak US close and worries over further restrictions to come masked what was nothing short of more tremendous vaccine news yesterday, with Pfizer and BioNTech reporting that the final analysis of its Phase 3 trial showed that the vaccine was 95% effective against Covid-19, catching up with Moderna’s numbers. The big news though was that the efficacy rate for those above 65 years old was over 94%, which offers hope that governments can start vaccinating the most vulnerable groups and return us back closer to normality quicker than could have been dreamed of even 10 days ago. Indeed this echoes what we wrote in Tuesday’s chart of the day (link here), where we tallied up the global population over 70 by region and compared that to the initial amount of vaccine doses that have been ordered and promised.
In the announcement, Pfizer/BioNTech said that they planned to submit a request “within days” to for an Emergency Use Authorization from the FDA. Their current projections envisage them producing 50m vaccine doses this year and up to 1.3bn by the end of next year. One thing to remember however, is that this vaccine needs to be transported at temperatures of minus 70C, so well below your average home freezer, whereas the Moderna vaccine we heard about on Tuesday can be transported at minus 20C. But overall the newsflow has been incredibly positive in the last couple of weeks, and that’s before we hear from other trials such as the one from AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford. I suppose there will be all sorts of questions if efficacy here is in the say 60-70% range. This would have been deemed as reasonable 10 days ago but would now be pretty disappointing, especially as it is cheaper and potentially more available for more regions. However it’s tough to be too churlish and second guess in advance given the remarkable early vaccine efficacy successes.
Back for now to immediate restrictions and Colorado was the most recent state to urge its resident’s against travelling around the Thanksgiving holiday next week as hospitalisations reached a new high. Minnesota’s Governor ordered that gyms close, and restaurants/bars move to take-out only, while youth sports are cancelled for a month. In Europe, a French government spokesperson told reporters that the country is far away from deciding to end the lockdown, even as stores are set to reopen on December 1. While there were protests in Germany over the current lockdown rules, the Finance Minister Scholz defended the measures, saying they are accepted by the majority of the country according to polling. Lastly weekly covid-19 deaths hit their highest levels since April in Italy and Turkey yesterday, though some places such as Germany, the UK and France have seen these numbers plateau. Across the other side of the world, the Edaily reported that South Korea may raise its social distancing steps further to level 2 if the average daily infections stay above 200 for a week in the greater Seoul area. The country reported 343 new cases today. In Japan, Tokyo’s Governor said that the prefecture will likely enhance virus measures as the country reported record new infections over the past 24 hours at 2,230 with Tokyo raising its virus alert to the highest level as new infections in the region are expected to top 500 today.
Back to markets, before the late US sell-off the STOXX 600 was up another +0.44% and at a new post-pandemic high as other indices across the continent similarly moved higher. Banks were a strong performer once again with the STOXX Banks index in Europe up a further +0.79% yesterday to its own post-pandemic high, while other cyclicals such as Autos (+1.31%) and Retail (+1.13%) were the other outperformers, following the recent theme.
Over in FX, the US dollar dropped even with the late turn in sentiment with the NY schools news causing only a short lived rally in the dollar index. The greenback fell (-0.24%) and is not too far from the 2-year closing low it reached back at the end of August. With the dollar weakening, Bitcoin’s rise continued at a slower pace (+0.84%) yesterday, following moves of more than 5% higher over both of the previous two days. The cryptocurrency reached its highest level in nearly 3 years though, having risen almost 70% in just a matter of weeks. We mentioned this in my chart of the day yesterday (link here), which looked at how global assets had shifted since the vaccine news from Pfizer arrived. There’s been a big divergence and bias towards cyclically-exposed assets, with the energy complex soaring along with financials (especially in Europe), whereas one of the worst performers has been in tech.
Back to yesterday and sovereign bond markets pared back their morning gains to close lower, with yields on 10yr Treasuries (+1.3bps), bunds (+0.9bps) and gilts (+1.3bps) all moving higher. Once again, Greek debt was an outperformer, and in a sign that markets are putting the risk premium that emerged during the sovereign debt crisis increasingly behind them, the spread of 10yr Greek debt over bunds fell another -1.4bps yesterday to 1.218%, which is its tightest level in over a decade.
If that’s reminding anyone of late-night EU summits, we’ve got an important videoconference of EU leaders being held later today, which is focusing on the bloc’s response to the pandemic. Nevertheless, another topic that might come up is how to proceed on the EU’s long-term budget and recovery fund, following the veto from Hungary and Poland earlier this week over conditions that were imposed that would seek to link access to budget funds with adherence to the rule of law.
Yesterday’s data from the US showed the number of housing starts in October rose to an annualised rate of 1.530m (vs. 1.460m expected), which was its highest level since February. However, the number of building permits fell to an annualised 1.545m (vs. 1.567m expected), which is another sign that housing activity is likely topping out a bit. Over in Europe, the UK’s October CPI reading surprised to the upside, coming in at +0.7% yoy (vs. +0.5% expected), while core CPI also rose to +1.5%. Otherwise, the growth in new car registrations in the EU fell back into negative territory on a year-on-year basis, with a -7.8% reading in October.
To the day ahead now, and the highlights will include remarks from ECB President Lagarde, as well as from the ECB’s Schnabel, Villeroy, Hernandez de Cos, and the Fed’s Mester and Rosengren. There’ll also be monetary policy decisions from Bank Indonesia, the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Data releases including the weekly initial jobless claims from the US, as well as October’s leading index and existing home sales. Along with that, there’ll be the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook index and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for November. Finally, EU leaders will be meeting via videoconference tonight.