Submitted by Christophe Barraud
Analysts look divided concerning U.S. new vehicle sales in October after they rebounded by 90.4% MoM since April (Wards data).
According to the Bloomberg consensus, they should rise to 16.50m(e) SAAR, up from 16.34m in September.
However, two out of four specialists I’m following closely, are betting on a sharp downward surprise in a context where the federal government’s CARES Act programs for the most part expired at the end of July and a new wave of coronavirus hit several states in cooler regions.
1- ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. projects “ total new vehicle sales will reach 1,307,998 units in October 2020, down 6.1% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15.7 million units. ”
2- In the meantime, Industry consultants J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said “the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new vehicle sales is expected to be 15.9 million units, down 0.8 million units from 2019, the smallest year-over-year decline since the pandemic began.”
3- At the opposite, Cox Automotive noted “the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales is expected to finish near 16.4 million, up slightly from September’s surprisingly strong 16.3 million rate but down from last year’s 16.8 million level”
4- Finally, Wards Intelligence expects sales to reach 16.8 million SAAR.